A Look Back: Matsuzaka, Year 1

We are going to start a new feature here at MLBFleeceFactor.com called “A Look Back.”  Every now and then we’ll reflect on MLB transactions of the past and see who was actually fleeced. 

First up, Daisuke Matsuzaka.  As we all know, the Boston Red Sox paid $51.1M just to talk to the Japanese phenom, and then inked him to a 6 year, $52M deal.  It is a total commitment of $103M over 6 years.   Well, year 1 of 6 is in the books.  Is anyone getting fleeced so far?

I originally projected Matsuzaka to win about 15 games in his “rookie” year and to post an ERA of 3.41 with a WHIP of 1.27.  I figured this production would be worth an annual average value of $15M, which is close to what the Sox doled out.   Many other projections seemed to be a little more conservative, but the seemed to at least project Dice K as a solid number 2 starter.

However, despite winning 15 games, Matsuzaka’s ERA finished at 4.40 and his WHIP closed at 1.32.  Control was a problem in every one of his poor starts, and was probably the result of unfamiliarity with opposing hitters and his own catcher.   There were times when he was dominant and seemed like a legitimate ace.  But he wasn’t consistent enough.  And although he had his moments in the playoffs, Matsuzaka proved to be no more than a good 3rd starter for a competitor in year 1.  Is that worth over $15M per year?  Probably not.  

Of course, a strong argument for laying out the cash for this Japanese star was the additional revenue gained by the Red Sox in Japan.  I just don’t think that can be fully measured, however, after 1 year.  The main benefits that Boston was seeking were long term:  better player scouting, better relations with Japanese teams, and possible long term marketing alliances.  So in just purely evaluating year 1 of the Matsuzaka investment, I don’t think we can have a conclusive opinion on this “additional revenue” factor. 

So based on performance alone, I think year one belongs to Matsuzaka/Boras/Seibu.   So far, the fleece factor is on their side.  But there is still plenty of time for Daisuke to make the Red Sox look like geniuses so we’ll be revisiting this issue in time.

Update: According to Fannation, the revenue Scott Boras “promised” the Red Sox came up “well” short of expectations in year # 1 of Dice-K. The Red Sox were led to believe additional funds in the range of $5 or 6 million (as the Yankees and Mariners had seen with Ichiro and Godzilla) would be coming their way. Apparently, the lone contract earned by Boston as a result of the Dice-K signing was worth $900,000. Nice ball, Mr. Boras.